THE WORLDWIDE SURGE IN FOOD PRICES AND ITS EFFECT ON LOW-INCOME COUNTRIES

These countries, where households spend a larger proportion of their income on food, have struggled with soaring food prices, exacerbating existing vulnerabilities. At a special event held on the margins of the ECOSOC High-Level Political Forum (HLPF), the drivers of this food inflation crisis were explored, alongside the policy measures necessary to address its ongoing consequences.

The drivers behind the food price surge

Food inflation has been on the rise since 2020, outpacing overall inflation for several consecutive years. This surge reached its peak in January 2023, with food prices increasing by 13.6 percent, well above the 8.5 percent general inflation rate. Several global shocks contributed to this sustained increase in food prices, including the COVID-19 pandemic, the ongoing war in Ukraine, and extreme weather events brought about by climate change. These events disrupted supply chains, strained agricultural production, and raised energy costs, creating a perfect storm for food price volatility.

Low-income countries have been hit hardest by this surge. The median global food inflation rate reached 13.6 percent by early 2023, but for low-income countries, the figure was even higher, peaking at 30 percent. In these nations, food inflation is often linked to an increase in food insecurity, with a 10 percent rise in food prices correlating to a 3.5 percent increase in moderate or severe food insecurity. In particular, structural inequalities, such as limited access to food markets and reliance on food imports, have compounded the crisis. Gender inequalities also play a critical role, with women and children being disproportionately affected by rising food prices, leading to higher levels of malnutrition.

The situation has not improved even as global food commodity prices have begun to decline. In many low-income countries, these price reductions have not translated into lower consumer prices, prolonging the financial strain on vulnerable households. This highlights the uneven impact of the global food price crisis, where the benefits of global price reductions have been unevenly distributed, leaving the poorest countries to suffer.

Policy responses and long-term solutions

To address the challenges posed by food price inflation, the United Nations has called for coordinated policy responses. The 2025 edition of the State of Food Security and Nutrition (SOFI) report, released at the UN Food Systems Summit in Addis Ababa, provides recommendations for strengthening countries' capacities and transforming agrifood systems to better withstand future shocks. According to FAO Director-General Qu Dongyu, policy actions must address both supply and demand factors, with a focus on long-term solutions that enhance food production, supply chain resilience, and social protection for vulnerable populations.

One of the critical policy responses discussed at the HLPF meeting was the need for targeted fiscal measures, such as social protection programs, to safeguard the most vulnerable households. These measures would help mitigate the impacts of rising food prices and prevent further exacerbation of food insecurity. Additionally, credible and transparent monetary policies are essential to manage inflationary pressures, while strategic investments in agrifood research and development, transport infrastructure, and market information systems will be crucial to improving agricultural productivity and resilience.

For low-income countries, the road to recovery from the food price crisis will require not only emergency interventions but also long-term investments in sustainable agriculture and infrastructure. This will involve strengthening local food systems to reduce reliance on imported food and ensuring that food production is more resilient to climate change. Only through a coordinated, global effort can the international community hope to address the disparities in food security and nutrition caused by this prolonged food price surge.

The rise in food prices has highlighted the vulnerabilities of low-income countries and the pressing need for a multifaceted policy response. As global food systems continue to face challenges from climate change and geopolitical instability, it is critical that international efforts focus on building resilience and ensuring equitable access to affordable, nutritious food for all. The outcomes of the HLPF and the SOFI 2025 report will be crucial in guiding future actions to reduce the impact of food price inflation and build a more sustainable and secure global food system for the future.

Image credit: FAO